Monday, March 16, 2009

What trade deficit ?

Does anybody really believe that the United States would champion an open trade policy if it was not to our favor?

I think the obvious answer to this question is NO. Starting from that basis it should be easy to see where all the pieces fit. It is so easy to manipulate the trade deficit numbers that it almost makes no real sense. The only thing that it is good for is as a marker from year to year. Even at that it is only so good as a marker so long as currency exchange rates, markups and technology stay the same. Change any of these factors and the numbers don't mean anything. The United States has supposedly been running a trade deficit from 1976. Does it make any sense that something so bad could be going on for 33 years through ups and downs in the economy? Who are the countries with the positive trade deficits all these years and why have they not supplanted the US as a superpower?

Now that I have you thinking, lets consider how the trade deficit is compiled. Let us consider how these imports are valued. Generally they are valued at cost. Not their fair value and definitely not at what it would cost to build these goods domestically. If you valued these goods at what it would cost to build them domestically I believe that you would find the trade deficit in the favor of the United States. Also consider the types of goods we import vs those we export. We seem to import more finished goods and export more raw goods and pop culture. Put another way, let us forget that we are trading these goods for money and let us pretend we are using a barter system. We are bringing in cars, electronics, steel, oil, cloths and we are trading out beef, wheat, corn, manure, Elvis and Madona. When you simplify this down to a bartering system I think the US is making out very well in the trade. It so happens that the accounting system we use in man made and imperfect. It was never designed to deal with such large scale variations in currency, markup and technology. So why not correct the system to account for this? Why would we want the rest of world to know that they are loosing out by trading with us.

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